Contents

Appendix L: Renormalisation Group Analysis, Beta Functions, and UV Stability

Revision note (v13.0). The running of κ\kappa is withdrawn. κ\kappa is no longer fixed by GG, the scalar mass is no longer 101010^{10} eV, and the fixed coherence length λc\lambda_c has been replaced by the environment-dependent range λ(ρ)\lambda(\rho). The running of the v13.0 coupling β0\beta_0 has not been computed. Corrected in this version: the sign statement (a positive one-loop beta function means the coupling grows in the UV, so "asymptotically free" was wrong); the arithmetic for Δκ\Delta\kappa and Δm2\Delta m^2; the third term of the error budget (the stated formula gives 1.5%, not 3.6%); and the QCD running factor 0.86, which was applied to a coefficient CC already defined at the QCD scale (which reading is intended is unresolved). The estimate of the QCD running of CC is kept, with its assumptions listed. The headline benchmark (6.0±0.7)×10−9(6.0\pm0.7)\times10^{-9} is withdrawn as a prediction. See section 1 of the main document and the screened scalar document.

1. Purpose and Scope

An effective field theory should show that its free parameters do not flow to unphysical values under renormalisation group (RG) evolution. The v13.0 parameters of the testable sector are (β0,C,Λ,n)(\beta_0,C,\Lambda,n), with a separate EFT cutoff ΛEFT\Lambda_{\rm EFT}. This appendix records what can be said about their running today:

  1. The v12 one-loop beta function for κ\kappa is withdrawn (section 3.1). The corresponding calculation for β0\beta_0 has not been done.
  2. The QCD running of the isospin coefficient CC is kept as an estimate (section 3.2).
  3. The v12 running of the coherence length is withdrawn (section 3.3).
  4. The fixed-point discussion is corrected (section 4).
  5. The symmetry-protection arguments are revised (section 5).
  6. The lattice-QCD error budget is recomputed (section 8).

The appendix does not demonstrate radiative stability of the v13.0 parameters. That is an open item.

2. RG Framework for MCE

2.1. The action

The Level 1 action is the one in the main document,

S=∫d4x−g[MPl22R−12(∂ϕ)2−V(ϕ)]+∑iSi ⁣[ψi, Ai2(ϕ) gμν],Ai=eβiϕ/MPl.S = \int d^4x\sqrt{-g}\left[\frac{M_{\rm Pl}^2}{2}R - \frac12(\partial\phi)^2 - V(\phi)\right] + \sum_i S_i\!\left[\psi_i,\ A_i^2(\phi)\,g_{\mu\nu}\right],\qquad A_i=e^{\beta_i\phi/M_{\rm Pl}}.

At linear order the matter coupling is ϕ T\phi\,T with strength βi/MPl\beta_i/M_{\rm Pl}. The symbol κ\kappa is, at most, notation for β0/MPl\beta_0/M_{\rm Pl}. It has mass dimension −1-1. No parameter is fixed by matching GG, and no numerical value of κ\kappa is an input to the v13.0 equations. The v12 action contained a separate vector field AμEMEA_\mu^{\rm EME} and a fixed scalar mass term. Both are withdrawn from the core (see the screened scalar document).

The RG equations follow from requiring the renormalised action to be independent of the scale μ\mu:

μddμ(ZX Xbare)=0.\mu \frac{d}{d\mu} \left( Z_X \, X_{\text{bare}} \right) = 0.

2.2. Exponential regulator and loop finiteness

With the non-local operator K(□)=e−□/Λ2/(□+m2)K(\square)=e^{-\square/\Lambda^2}/(\square+m^2), the Euclidean propagator is

DE(pE)=e−pE2/Λ2pE2+m2.D_E(p_E) = \frac{e^{-p_E^2/\Lambda^2}}{p_E^2 + m^2}.

Each one-loop integral acquires a factor e−npE2/Λ2e^{-np_E^2/\Lambda^2} and converges at large pEp_E. Schematically, with an infrared cut-off at pE=mp_E=m, the logarithmically divergent integral becomes

Ilog∼∫m∞dpEpE e−pE2/Λ2=12E1(m2Λ2)≈12ln⁡Λ2m2,I_{\text{log}} \sim \int_m^\infty \frac{dp_E}{p_E}\, e^{-p_E^2/\Lambda^2} = \frac{1}{2} E_1\left(\frac{m^2}{\Lambda^2}\right) \approx \frac{1}{2} \ln\frac{\Lambda^2}{m^2},

where E1E_1 is the exponential integral, and the quadratic divergence becomes the finite term ∫0∞pE e−pE2/Λ2dpE=Λ2/2\int_0^\infty p_E\,e^{-p_E^2/\Lambda^2}dp_E=\Lambda^2/2.

Caveats. Two statements in the v12 text are withdrawn. First, that the one-loop beta functions are "scheme-independent": the finite threshold terms depend on the chosen form factor, which is a choice and not derived (see Appendix O, item 1.1). Second, that the finiteness is established: it relies on applying the regulator in Euclidean signature, and the continuation to Lorentzian signature is conditional, because the factor ep2/Λ2e^{p^2/\Lambda^2} grows at timelike momenta (see the causality note). The v13.0 Level 1 action is local, so none of its predictions depend on this section.


3. One-Loop Beta Functions

3.1. The coupling κ\kappa (withdrawn)

The v12 text gave βκ=μ dκ/dμ=κ3/(12π2)\beta_\kappa=\mu\,d\kappa/d\mu=\kappa^3/(12\pi^2) and concluded that κ\kappa runs by a fractional 5×10−245\times10^{-24} between 101010^{10} eV and 1 eV. This section is withdrawn for five reasons.

  1. κ\kappa is no longer fixed by matching GG; the written formula did not give the quoted value in any case (see the Theory Hardening Analysis, Part V, item V.1).
  2. κ\kappa multiplies ϕ T\phi\,T and therefore has mass dimension −1-1. A beta function of the form κ3/(12π2)\kappa^3/(12\pi^2) applies to a dimensionless coupling.
  3. The self-energy expression shown does not lead to the quoted beta function; no derivation was given.
  4. The scalar mass used, mϕ∼1010m_\phi\sim10^{10} eV, is withdrawn.
  5. The sign statement was wrong (below).

Status. The running of the dimensionless coupling β0\beta_0 has not been computed. Open.

Corrected statements, for the record.

  • Sign. If a dimensionless coupling gg obeys βg=+b g3\beta_g=+b\,g^3 with b=1/(12π2)>0b=1/(12\pi^2)>0, then
1g2(μ)=1g2(μ0)−16π2ln⁡μμ0.\frac{1}{g^2(\mu)}=\frac{1}{g^2(\mu_0)}-\frac{1}{6\pi^2}\ln\frac{\mu}{\mu_0}.

The coupling grows with energy and reaches a Landau pole at ln⁡(μL/μ0)=6π2/g2(μ0)\ln(\mu_L/\mu_0)=6\pi^2/g^2(\mu_0). It is not asymptotically free. The v12 statements that the theory is "asymptotically free in the gravitational sector" and has "no Landau pole" were wrong as written.

  • Arithmetic. The v12 expression (8.4×10−3)×(1.623×10−10)2×23(8.4\times10^{-3})\times(1.623\times10^{-10})^2\times23 equals 5.1×10−215.1\times10^{-21}, not 5×10−245\times10^{-24}. This treats 1.623×10−101.623\times10^{-10} as a pure number, which it is not in C/kg.

3.2. The isospin coefficient CC (kept as an estimate)

The coefficient CC in δ(Z,A)=C ε (Z/A−12)\delta(Z,A)=C\,\varepsilon\,(Z/A-\tfrac12) is dimensionless. Below the hadronic scale it is set by non-perturbative physics and is a fixed number at the matching scale μQCD∼200\mu_{\rm QCD}\sim200 MeV. Between μQCD\mu_{\rm QCD} and a higher scale, an estimate of its perturbative QCD running uses

μdCdμ=αs2π γC C.\mu \frac{dC}{d\mu} = \frac{\alpha_s}{2\pi}\,\gamma_C\,C .

Assumptions. The estimate rests on the following inputs, each of which is open to question.

  1. A one-loop anomalous dimension with γC=−2\gamma_C=-2, described in v12 as "typical for scalar operators in QCD". It is an assumed value. The one-loop quark-mass anomalous dimension corresponds to a magnitude of 4 in these units (to be verified), and the operator that CC multiplies has not been identified.
  2. A fixed coupling αs=0.118\alpha_s=0.118 (the value at mZm_Z) over the whole range.
  3. A matching scale μQCD=200\mu_{\rm QCD}=200 MeV, at the edge of perturbation theory, and an upper scale ΛEFT=10\Lambda_{\rm EFT}=10 GeV, which is a free scale.

Result with these assumptions.

ΔCC=αs2π γC ln⁡ΛEFTμQCD=0.1182π×(−2)×ln⁡10 GeV0.2 GeV=−0.0376×3.912=−14.7%(linear),\frac{\Delta C}{C}=\frac{\alpha_s}{2\pi}\,\gamma_C\,\ln\frac{\Lambda_{\rm EFT}}{\mu_{\rm QCD}}=\frac{0.118}{2\pi}\times(-2)\times\ln\frac{10\ {\rm GeV}}{0.2\ {\rm GeV}}=-0.0376\times3.912=-14.7\%\quad\text{(linear)},

or a factor exp⁡(−0.147)=0.863\exp(-0.147)=0.863 if the equation is integrated (a change of −13.7%-13.7\%). The v12 text's "−14%-14\%" and the factor 0.86 correspond to the integrated form. Because γC<0\gamma_C<0, CC decreases with increasing μ\mu: C(ΛEFT)=0.863 C(μQCD)C(\Lambda_{\rm EFT})=0.863\,C(\mu_{\rm QCD}), and equivalently C(μQCD)=1.158 C(ΛEFT)C(\mu_{\rm QCD})=1.158\,C(\Lambda_{\rm EFT}).

Sensitivity to the fixed-coupling assumption. If αs(μ)\alpha_s(\mu) is run at one loop from αs(mZ)=0.1179\alpha_s(m_Z)=0.1179 with five flavours held fixed, the integrated factor from 0.2 GeV to 10 GeV is 0.63, and from 1 GeV to 10 GeV it is 0.84. One-loop running is not reliable below about 1 GeV. The fixed-αs\alpha_s value of −14%-14\% is therefore not a stable estimate. Estimated, with a large assumption-dependence.

Lattice constraint. The earlier text said that lattice QCD "can constrain this running and pin down CC to about 5%". That figure is withdrawn: the uncertainty budget in section 8 has a floor of 7.1% from ΛQCD\Lambda_{\rm QCD} alone, and the operator has not been identified.

3.3. The coherence length λc\lambda_c (withdrawn)

The v12 text related λc\lambda_c to a scalar mass mϕm_\phi and computed the running of mϕ2m_\phi^2 under the same κ\kappa. That calculation is withdrawn. The fixed λc\lambda_c and mϕ∼1010m_\phi\sim10^{10} eV are retired; the range is λ(ρ)=ℏ/(meff(ρ)c)\lambda(\rho)=\hbar/(m_{\rm eff}(\rho)c) and depends on the environment. A scalar of mass 101010^{10} eV has a Compton length of 1.97×10−171.97\times10^{-17} m and cannot give a micrometre range.

Arithmetic, for the record. The v12 expression Δmϕ2≈κ2Λ2ln⁡(Λ/μexp)/(16π2)\Delta m_\phi^2\approx\kappa^2\Lambda^2\ln(\Lambda/\mu_{\rm exp})/(16\pi^2) with κ=10−10\kappa=10^{-10} treated as a pure number, Λ=1010\Lambda=10^{10} eV and ln⁡(1010)=23.0\ln(10^{10})=23.0 gives 0.1460.146 eV², not 1.5×10−31.5\times10^{-3} eV² (a factor of 97). The fractional shift against mϕ2=1020m_\phi^2=10^{20} eV² is 1.5×10−211.5\times10^{-21}, not 10−2310^{-23}. With κ=1.623×10−10\kappa=1.623\times10^{-10} the same expression gives 0.380.38 eV². These values are meaningless in any case: κ\kappa in C/kg is not a pure number, so κ2Λ2\kappa^2\Lambda^2 is not in eV².


4. Fixed-Point Analysis

4.1. Gaussian fixed point

For a coupling with βg=+b g3\beta_g=+b\,g^3 and b>0b>0, the only perturbative fixed point is g∗=0g^*=0. It is attractive towards the IR: g→0g\to0 as μ→0\mu\to0. It is not a UV fixed point, because gg grows as μ\mu increases. The v12 statement that the Gaussian fixed point makes the theory "asymptotically free" and shows "no Landau pole" is withdrawn. Whether β0\beta_0 has this beta function has not been computed.

4.2. Stability matrix

At g∗=0g^*=0 the eigenvalue ∂βg/∂g\partial\beta_g/\partial g is zero, so the coupling is marginal at leading order. With βg=+b g3\beta_g=+b\,g^3 it is marginally irrelevant: it decreases towards the IR and increases towards the UV. The v12 text defined "marginally irrelevant" as "flows to zero in the UV" and "marginally relevant" as "grows in the UV". Both definitions had the direction of flow reversed. A marginally relevant coupling (as in an asymptotically free theory) grows towards the IR.

4.3. Asymptotic safety check (withdrawn)

The v12 text argued that the scalar does not destabilise an asymptotically safe gravitational fixed point because κ≈1.623×10−10\kappa\approx1.623\times10^{-10} C/kg corresponds to a small dimensionless coupling GNmϕ2/(cℏ)G_Nm_\phi^2/(c\hbar). That argument used the withdrawn κ\kappa and mϕm_\phi. No asymptotic-safety check is made in v13.0. Open.


5. Symmetry Protections

5.1. Protection of the scalar potential (withdrawn claim)

The v12 text argued that diffeomorphism invariance prohibits a mass term for ϕ\phi in vacuum, so that the scalar mass is protected. This is wrong: a scalar mass term 12m2ϕ2\tfrac12 m^2\phi^2 is diffeomorphism invariant. No symmetry in the Level 1 action protects the potential V(ϕ)V(\phi) against radiative corrections. The effective mass meff(ρ)m_{\rm eff}(\rho) in the screened scalar document is set by VV and by the local density. Whether quantum corrections preserve the chameleon-type potential has been studied in the literature (Upadhye, Hu and Khoury, 2012; citation to be verified). Open.

5.2. Isospin and the coefficient CC

In the limit of exact isospin symmetry (mn=mpm_n=m_p, mu=mdm_u=m_d) the composition-dependent factor δ(Z,A)\delta(Z,A) vanishes, so a non-zero CεC\varepsilon requires isospin breaking. That much is an argument from symmetry. Two further statements are not established.

  1. The proportionality C∝(md−mu)/ΛQCDC\propto(m_d-m_u)/\Lambda_{\rm QCD} was asserted, not derived. The v13.0 definition δ=C ε (Z/A−12)\delta=C\,\varepsilon\,(Z/A-\tfrac12) already contains ε=(mn−mp)/mp\varepsilon=(m_n-m_p)/m_p, which is itself an isospin-breaking quantity. A further factor of (md−mu)/ΛQCD(m_d-m_u)/\Lambda_{\rm QCD} in CC might count the same isospin breaking twice, unless CC is defined differently. Open.
  2. The lattice input "md−mu≈2.7m_d-m_u\approx2.7 MeV to within about 5%, Borsanyi et al. 2015" is marked to be verified. The attribution was not confirmed, and the uncertainty is quoted as 8.2% in section 8.1 below. The statement that this gives a "first-principles cross-check without free parameters" is withdrawn: CC remains an input.

6. Summary of RG Results

Parameter Result Status
κ\kappa (v12) Running withdrawn. Not fixed by GG; dimensionful; beta function not derived Withdrawn
β0\beta_0 Running not computed. If it has a positive one-loop coefficient it grows in the UV Open
CC QCD running, with γC=−2\gamma_C=-2 assumed: −14.7%-14.7\% (linear) or factor 0.863 for fixed αs=0.118\alpha_s=0.118; factor 0.63 to 0.84 with one-loop αs(μ)\alpha_s(\mu) Estimated (assumption-dependent)
λc\lambda_c and mϕm_\phi (v12) Running withdrawn. The range is λ(ρ)\lambda(\rho) Withdrawn
Potential V(ϕ)V(\phi) No symmetry protection identified; radiative stability not shown Open
Fixed point Gaussian point is IR-attractive for a positive one-loop coefficient; not UV safe Derived (general statement), not computed for β0\beta_0

The v12 conclusion that "the MCE EFT parameters are radiatively stable" is withdrawn. It is not demonstrated for the v13.0 parameters.


7. The legacy benchmark and the QCD running factor

The legacy reference point is the unsuppressed Aluminium–Gold difference 1.9×10−81.9\times10^{-8} (equal to 2β02Δδ2\beta_0^2\Delta\delta with 2β02=5.7×10−32\beta_0^2=5.7\times10^{-3} and C=0.03C=0.03, an inference described in the screened scalar document), multiplied by a screening and range factor taken as f=e−1f=e^{-1}:

1.9×10−8×e−1=6.99×10−9.1.9\times10^{-8}\times e^{-1}=6.99\times10^{-9}.

The v12 text multiplied this by 1+ΔC/C=0.861+\Delta C/C=0.86 to obtain 6.0×10−96.0\times10^{-9}. The factor of 0.86 is the QCD running from ΛEFT\Lambda_{\rm EFT} to μQCD\mu_{\rm QCD}. In section 8.2 of the same document CC is defined at μQCD\mu_{\rm QCD} (C(μQCD)=0.03C(\mu_{\rm QCD})=0.03). The running factor was therefore applied to a quantity already defined at the scale it runs to. The readings are:

Reading Factor on Δa/a\Delta a/a Reference point
C=0.03C=0.03 is the value at μQCD\mu_{\rm QCD}, where the experiment is matched. No running applies 1 7.0×10−97.0\times10^{-9}
C=0.03C=0.03 is the value at ΛEFT\Lambda_{\rm EFT}, run to μQCD\mu_{\rm QCD} with the stated βC\beta_C 1/0.863=1.1581/0.863=1.158 8.1×10−98.1\times10^{-9}
v12 as written (running applied in the direction that lowers CC) 0.86 6.0×10−96.0\times10^{-9}

The third reading is not consistent with the stated beta function for CC when 0.030.03 is taken at ΛEFT\Lambda_{\rm EFT}, because CC increases towards the IR. Which reading is intended is not stated in the source and is unresolved. The accompanying script anchors CC at μQCD\mu_{\rm QCD} and applies no running factor, which corresponds to the first reading. The screened scalar document quotes the reference point as about 6 to 7×10−97\times10^{-9}, without error bars. The reference point is an Estimated value of the parameter surface, not a prediction.


8. Lattice-QCD Error Propagation

This section propagates the quoted lattice and perturbative uncertainties onto CC under the assumption C∝(md−mu)/ΛQCDC\propto(m_d-m_u)/\Lambda_{\rm QCD}. That assumption is not derived (section 5.2). The result is therefore the uncertainty in CC if the relation held, and it is not an uncertainty on a prediction of Δa/a\Delta a/a.

8.1. Input uncertainties (all to be verified)

Source Central value Uncertainty Relative error
md−mum_d - m_u (MS‾\overline{\rm MS}, 2 GeV) 2.67 MeV ±0.22 MeV 8.2%
ΛQCD\Lambda_{\text{QCD}} (2+1+1 flavour average) 210 MeV ±15 MeV 7.1%
αs(mZ)\alpha_s(m_Z) 0.1179 ±0.0010 0.85%
Anomalous dimension γC\gamma_C −2.0 ±0.2 10%

All four values are to be verified against the original sources before use. The earlier version labelled them "FLAG 2023 / PDG 2024" and attributed md−mum_d-m_u to FLAG and to Fodor et al. (2016) and Borsanyi et al. (2015) in different places. None of these labels was confirmed in this revision. The value of γC\gamma_C and its 10% uncertainty are assumptions (section 3.2), not lattice or PDG inputs.

8.2. Propagation formula

Assume C=ξ (md−mu)/ΛQCDC=\xi\,(m_d-m_u)/\Lambda_{\rm QCD}, where ξ\xi is a dimensionless coefficient fixed by C(μQCD)=0.03C(\mu_{\rm QCD})=0.03. With the numbers above, ξ=0.03/(2.67/210)≈2.4\xi=0.03/(2.67/210)\approx2.4. The fractional uncertainty is

σCC=(σΔmΔm)2+(σΛQCDΛQCD)2+(αs2π σγCln⁡ΛEFTμQCD)2.\frac{\sigma_C}{C}=\sqrt{\left(\frac{\sigma_{\Delta m}}{\Delta m}\right)^2+\left(\frac{\sigma_{\Lambda_{\rm QCD}}}{\Lambda_{\rm QCD}}\right)^2+\left(\frac{\alpha_s}{2\pi}\,\sigma_{\gamma_C}\ln\frac{\Lambda_{\rm EFT}}{\mu_{\rm QCD}}\right)^2}.

The third term is the stated formula σγCln⁡(ΛEFT/μQCD)/(2π/αs)\sigma_{\gamma_C}\ln(\Lambda_{\rm EFT}/\mu_{\rm QCD})/(2\pi/\alpha_s). With σγC=0.2\sigma_{\gamma_C}=0.2, ln⁡50=3.912\ln50=3.912 and 2π/αs=2π/0.1179=53.32\pi/\alpha_s=2\pi/0.1179=53.3,

0.2×3.91253.3=0.0147=1.5%.\frac{0.2\times3.912}{53.3}=0.0147=1.5\%.

The earlier document gave 3.6% for this term. The formula does not produce that value. Numerically,

σCC=(0.082)2+(0.071)2+(0.015)2=0.110=11.0%,\frac{\sigma_C}{C}=\sqrt{(0.082)^2+(0.071)^2+(0.015)^2}=0.110=11.0\%,

compared with 11.4% in the earlier version. The contribution of the uncertainty in αs\alpha_s itself is smaller still (about 0.1%) and was not what the formula contained.

8.3. Error budget by source

Source Contribution to σC/C\sigma_C/C Share of variance
σ(md−mu)\sigma(m_d - m_u) 8.2% 56%
σ(ΛQCD)\sigma(\Lambda_{\rm QCD}) 7.1% 42%
σ(γC)\sigma(\gamma_C) through the running 1.5% 2%
Total 11.0% 100%

The earlier table gave shares of 52%, 39% and 9%, which follow from the 3.6% term. The "reducible by" and "timeline" columns of the earlier version (which named specific lattice collaborations and years, and an e+e−e^+e^- collider) had no sources and are removed. Improved lattice determinations of md−mum_d-m_u and ΛQCD\Lambda_{\rm QCD} would reduce the first two terms.

8.4. Legacy benchmark and the fixed-length envelope

The boxed benchmark (6.0±0.7)×10−9(6.0\pm0.7)\times10^{-9} is withdrawn as a prediction with error bars. The reasons are those of section 7 (the running factor), the unproven relation between CC and md−mum_d-m_u, and the fact that 2β022\beta_0^2 and the factor ff are not known from this calculation. The value is kept as a legacy reference point of about 6 to 7×10−97\times10^{-9} (section 7).

The "theory envelope" 1.63×10−8 e−1 μm/λc1.63\times10^{-8}\,e^{-1\,\mu{\rm m}/\lambda_c} for λc∈[1,10] μ\lambda_c\in[1,10]\ \mum, giving (6.0 to 14.8)×10−9(6.0\text{ to }14.8)\times10^{-9}, is retired together with the fixed coherence length. The prefactor 1.63×10−81.63\times10^{-8} contained the same factor 0.86. The screening and range factor f(r,ρ,geometry)f(r,\rho,\text{geometry}) replaces the exponential, and has not been computed.

If the relation of section 8.2 held, the 11.0% uncertainty in CC would scale a reference point of 6 to 7×10−97\times10^{-9} by the same fraction, that is by roughly 0.7×10−90.7\times10^{-9} to 0.8×10−90.8\times10^{-9}. This is a statement about one input, not an error bar on a prediction.

8.5. Pre-registration

The earlier text proposed pre-registering the benchmark on arXiv because it was "derived entirely from" the MCE framework, lattice inputs and "calculable" QCD running. That description was wrong: the unsuppressed value 1.9×10−81.9\times10^{-8} is not derived, the factor 2β022\beta_0^2 is an inference, and the running factor is possibly counted twice. A pre-registered prediction needs the field solution f(r,ρ,geometry)f(r,\rho,\text{geometry}) for the experimental geometry and a determination of 2β02C2\beta_0^2C from stated assumptions. Pre-registration before an experiment is good practice once those exist. The script scripts/rg_running.py has not been revised for v13.0. It still uses the retired fixed-length band.

8.6. Sensitivity to lattice improvements

The table shows how the propagated uncertainty in CC responds to smaller assumed uncertainties in md−mum_d-m_u, with the other two terms unchanged. The smaller uncertainties are scenarios, not forecasts.

Scenario for σ(md−mu)\sigma(m_d-m_u) σC/C\sigma_C/C
±0.22 MeV (as in section 8.1) 11.0%
±0.10 MeV (assumed) 8.2%
±0.05 MeV (assumed) 7.5%

The uncertainty in ΛQCD\Lambda_{\rm QCD} alone is 7.1%, so the total cannot fall below that level without a better value of ΛQCD\Lambda_{\rm QCD}. The earlier values of 7.2% and 5.5% for the two scenarios are not reproduced by the formula, and the statement that the theoretical precision would be "better than 5%" is withdrawn.